The S&P 500 ETF, $spy, has been demonstrating notable resilience as it approaches the historically challenging month of September. Despite September’s reputation as the worst month for stocks since 1950, $spy has gained nearly 13% year-to-date and posted a solid 5.5% rise over the past month. Market strategist Ryan Detrick highlights that unlike previous years when the market entered September weak, this year nearly 70% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, signaling broad-based strength rather than gains driven by just a few large companies. Volatility remains subdued with the VIX near 15, suggesting calmer investor sentiment heading into the fall.
Meanwhile, $spy faces competition from its lower-cost counterpart, the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF ($spym), which has attracted a massive $57 billion in inflows this year. $spym’s 0.02% expense ratio is significantly cheaper than $spy’s 0.0945%, appealing to long-term investors focused on minimizing fees. However, $spy retains its status as the most liquid and widely traded S&P 500 product, favored by traders and institutions for its deep options market and tight bid-ask spreads. This dynamic underscores how investors weigh cost savings against liquidity needs when choosing between nearly identical index exposures.
On the macro front, $spy dipped slightly on Friday as traders digested Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Warsh emphasized the need for confidence that inflation is moving decisively toward the Fed’s target, hinting that further policy action may be necessary. This contributed to a modest pullback in the S&P 500 and a rise in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.73%. Despite this, historical patterns suggest the S&P 500 often posts gains from September through December when entering the period with a strong year-to-date advance, as is the case in 2026. While not a guarantee, this seasonal backdrop offers a cautiously optimistic context for $spy as it heads into the final months of the year.
Did you know?
The S&P 500 has historically delivered positive returns about 70% of the time over the long term, making it one of the most reliable benchmarks for broad U.S. stock market performance.
Disclaimer
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